* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/10/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 74 70 61 50 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 74 70 61 48 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 76 73 70 63 55 35 29 27 27 27 28 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 13 15 27 23 33 42 55 65 88 72 59 SHEAR DIR 193 200 191 177 207 218 211 218 228 226 221 225 229 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.3 29.3 31.2 29.7 26.6 21.5 19.5 18.9 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 134 137 159 173 164 131 78 62 60 59 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.8 -54.3 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 50 49 48 45 41 39 43 42 46 50 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 16 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 27 25 35 45 103 62 58 13 -24 -46 -47 200 MB DIV 11 19 20 22 42 49 18 13 25 39 29 40 7 LAND (KM) 526 477 438 350 254 16 13 -282 -583 -878 -945 -954 -999 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.7 22.6 24.5 26.6 28.9 31.3 33.6 35.8 37.1 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.3 113.0 111.8 109.7 107.9 105.9 104.1 101.6 99.6 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 14 14 13 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 0. -7. -16. -24. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -28. -43. -64. -80. -92. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -19. -21. -20. -22. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -29. -46. -62. -84.-114.-138.-154. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -30. -48. -64. -86.-116.-139.-156. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY