* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/10/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 50 53 53 55 57 58 58 60 63 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 50 53 53 55 57 58 58 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 48 52 57 62 67 71 75 78 82 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 12 11 14 13 19 16 15 16 17 6 4 SHEAR DIR 71 69 78 51 63 78 79 84 97 78 74 45 316 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 161 164 165 164 163 163 163 163 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 83 82 77 79 81 74 71 67 64 60 65 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 0 2 11 3 25 16 22 8 29 1 13 200 MB DIV 55 44 46 57 53 13 14 11 14 -9 -7 -3 6 LAND (KM) 200 179 160 138 135 123 104 112 109 146 159 243 238 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 97.1 97.8 98.8 99.7 101.5 103.1 104.6 105.8 106.6 106.9 108.0 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 3 4 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 16. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED