* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 44 50 53 55 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 44 50 53 55 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 36 38 40 41 40 38 35 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 17 18 20 17 15 19 19 26 30 31 31 SHEAR DIR 231 226 231 237 248 237 262 241 226 227 236 232 247 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 148 145 141 140 138 135 133 130 131 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 151 147 142 136 133 131 127 124 120 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 68 67 64 63 63 66 63 63 60 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 50 53 44 41 38 39 43 26 10 12 -1 200 MB DIV 41 50 66 68 42 27 37 53 52 63 30 1 10 LAND (KM) 1580 1596 1622 1657 1686 1638 1601 1579 1553 1581 1640 1737 1849 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.7 17.9 19.3 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.6 40.8 42.0 43.3 44.3 45.2 46.0 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 29 22 21 26 23 32 34 32 29 30 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 24. 28. 31. 31. 29. 27. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 25. 29. 30. 28. 26. 24. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY