* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 81 77 74 63 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 81 77 74 58 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 82 78 75 60 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 17 21 21 25 43 53 48 54 52 46 32 SHEAR DIR 197 197 175 203 216 209 224 228 233 234 241 257 266 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.6 28.7 30.7 29.4 26.8 24.9 22.4 22.3 24.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 141 152 174 161 132 111 85 83 101 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 6 5 5 1 4 1 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 46 47 39 43 44 40 39 37 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 19 18 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 27 32 33 55 87 41 20 5 -62 -45 -32 200 MB DIV 9 19 29 50 55 18 8 39 21 16 -3 0 -6 LAND (KM) 469 405 330 209 89 28 -322 -561 -736 -824 -731 -619 -686 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 25.9 29.4 31.2 32.0 33.1 33.2 32.3 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.4 113.4 112.8 112.1 110.8 107.7 106.1 104.5 103.2 101.6 101.0 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 17 17 9 8 7 5 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -6. -14. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -16. -25. -36. -48. -59. -68. -71. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -15. -19. -19. -19. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -20. -37. -55. -73. -93.-113.-127.-132. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -8. -11. -22. -40. -58. -75. -95.-115.-129.-134. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED