* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 60 62 62 62 64 67 72 74 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 60 62 62 62 64 67 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 56 58 62 67 71 74 77 80 83 87 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 12 13 13 18 19 21 15 20 8 4 7 SHEAR DIR 71 96 55 64 72 80 75 84 94 98 81 76 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 162 164 164 164 163 163 163 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 9 8 12 10 13 10 13 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 81 77 78 81 78 72 70 65 66 60 59 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -2 5 5 15 11 17 4 23 23 32 13 200 MB DIV 36 37 33 25 9 20 4 20 -8 -10 -13 4 2 LAND (KM) 176 145 115 118 122 125 85 108 122 167 209 313 277 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.6 98.3 99.2 100.1 102.0 103.5 104.7 105.8 106.7 107.6 108.7 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -5. -3. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 14. 15. 14. 16. 18. 23. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 12. 12. 12. 14. 17. 22. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED