* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 59 63 66 68 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 59 63 66 68 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 41 47 53 57 60 63 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 12 11 7 10 5 10 13 11 13 12 12 SHEAR DIR 248 242 244 255 258 243 202 192 173 196 178 192 198 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 148 149 149 149 146 143 140 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 151 148 146 145 144 143 140 136 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 76 78 73 70 68 70 69 67 66 65 60 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 25 18 11 24 26 31 34 21 -3 -8 -21 200 MB DIV 54 65 76 50 30 25 17 47 60 32 6 0 5 LAND (KM) 1496 1510 1532 1563 1537 1459 1391 1337 1313 1312 1352 1420 1497 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.7 13.2 14.0 14.9 16.0 17.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.8 37.7 38.6 39.4 40.8 42.1 43.4 44.8 46.0 47.2 48.3 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 24 22 23 28 33 31 29 27 33 43 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 25. 34. 39. 44. 46. 47. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 34. 38. 41. 43. 43. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY