* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * NORBERT EP152008 10/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 85 81 76 60 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 85 81 67 54 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 87 83 70 64 38 30 28 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 21 22 19 18 37 49 56 57 60 57 53 N/A SHEAR DIR 189 175 208 218 204 208 223 224 230 238 236 254 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 28.2 29.5 31.1 29.6 26.7 21.9 20.6 19.6 19.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 135 148 161 173 162 132 81 66 58 59 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.8 -55.4 -56.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 42 43 42 33 36 31 34 37 30 41 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 17 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 28 28 47 92 67 52 25 -21 -78 -90 N/A 200 MB DIV 21 30 43 47 49 9 3 17 1 -5 -3 9 N/A LAND (KM) 423 353 264 117 -28 3 -277 -532 -863 -876 -972 -915 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.8 24.9 27.0 29.2 31.3 33.4 34.4 35.5 35.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.4 113.3 112.5 111.7 110.1 108.1 106.6 104.1 102.4 102.5 101.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 13 13 13 14 12 6 5 6 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. -1. -10. -21. -30. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -8. -14. -23. -34. -47. -61. -75. -85. -90. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -5. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -14. -30. -46. -65. -88.-113.-137.-156.-161. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -5. -9. -14. -30. -46. -65. -88.-113.-137.-156.-161. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY