* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 57 62 65 65 67 67 72 73 72 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 57 62 65 65 67 67 72 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 55 59 64 68 71 73 75 78 81 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 14 13 11 21 20 21 19 12 5 5 12 SHEAR DIR 97 66 74 79 84 82 84 96 95 86 23 321 266 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 161 163 164 164 162 162 162 160 157 153 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 82 81 75 72 67 68 62 65 58 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 8 5 1 35 16 28 9 32 13 26 3 200 MB DIV 42 32 32 14 10 27 10 18 -4 0 10 -9 11 LAND (KM) 118 101 96 90 84 100 115 137 162 236 325 403 378 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.7 99.5 100.4 101.3 102.9 104.2 105.3 106.2 107.2 108.3 109.3 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 16. 19. 19. 23. 24. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 15. 15. 17. 17. 22. 23. 22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY