* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 70 62 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 70 60 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 81 72 54 35 29 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 16 16 26 39 45 40 42 31 39 31 N/A SHEAR DIR 172 204 214 211 206 217 215 229 236 252 261 284 N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.8 29.4 30.8 30.9 30.0 29.0 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 143 161 172 171 164 154 144 139 139 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 5 1 5 2 4 0 5 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 45 41 39 37 35 33 32 35 39 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 14 11 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 28 44 55 78 56 28 21 2 -1 -23 N/A 200 MB DIV 25 57 48 49 19 9 8 5 16 10 1 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 342 259 171 6 41 -80 -252 -410 -560 -610 -570 -690 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.6 25.8 27.4 28.4 29.6 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.0 112.7 111.7 110.6 109.3 107.9 106.8 105.4 104.7 105.4 103.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 12 16 13 9 8 7 5 0 2 8 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -40. -45. -52. -56. -59. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -20. -21. -22. -22. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -36. -52. -66. -78. -87. -98.-104.-106. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -12. -9. -7. -6. -7. -7. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -20. -28. -49. -65. -77. -86. -95.-105.-111.-113. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY