* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 61 66 69 69 68 67 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 61 66 69 69 68 67 68 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 56 61 66 68 70 70 72 74 75 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 10 10 18 19 26 23 19 14 9 13 13 SHEAR DIR 98 83 97 94 87 87 84 82 71 54 21 311 295 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 163 164 164 163 161 160 158 156 154 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 12 10 13 10 13 9 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 82 84 82 79 76 71 69 70 63 65 60 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 10 14 32 21 36 23 13 8 8 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 40 33 30 19 25 19 13 -4 -4 -9 -11 -18 -4 LAND (KM) 69 69 69 71 93 85 130 176 212 267 324 366 388 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.7 100.5 101.4 102.2 103.5 104.3 105.1 106.0 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 409 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. 20. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 19. 18. 17. 18. 20. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY