* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 49 51 52 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 49 51 52 51 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 12 15 19 12 15 17 20 20 24 29 29 SHEAR DIR 285 293 278 267 284 300 260 239 241 249 255 274 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 143 141 140 140 138 134 131 130 130 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 140 136 134 133 130 125 122 120 119 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 67 63 67 68 67 67 61 62 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 28 24 20 20 28 36 23 18 7 -20 -17 200 MB DIV 76 41 18 8 14 17 38 60 34 22 -3 9 44 LAND (KM) 1649 1693 1702 1674 1651 1594 1567 1565 1599 1674 1737 1811 1848 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.9 18.2 19.3 20.6 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.6 38.4 39.1 39.7 41.1 42.3 43.5 44.3 45.1 46.0 47.2 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 23 21 31 34 33 29 29 24 30 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 18. 24. 27. 28. 27. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY