* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 93 85 72 51 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 98 86 79 57 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 100 81 89 66 39 30 28 27 28 29 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 21 27 41 49 58 59 69 59 56 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 209 213 213 210 228 233 225 222 231 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 29.0 30.4 31.1 30.8 27.9 22.4 19.6 19.2 18.4 18.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 156 171 173 174 146 89 63 60 59 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.9 -54.8 -55.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 41 38 37 32 35 41 34 31 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 12 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 44 61 86 51 42 -3 -43 -85 -117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 52 47 36 22 14 13 32 32 -20 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 216 61 10 48 -112 -517 -841 -863 -863 -999 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30.5 33.1 35.8 37.0 38.4 38.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 111.9 110.9 110.1 109.2 106.1 104.1 100.2 97.5 97.3 95.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 16 9 7 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -6. -21. -34. -46. -54. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -10. -15. -27. -39. -51. -67. -83. -98.-106.-112. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -23. -43. -70.-101.-131.-159.-184.-195.-202. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -7. -15. -28. -49. -77.-107.-136.-163.-187.-198.-206. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY