* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 63 65 66 65 65 65 66 68 68 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 63 65 66 65 65 65 66 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 64 67 72 75 75 74 72 72 75 78 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 14 21 18 24 28 24 19 11 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 87 83 87 86 96 84 84 82 75 72 56 272 245 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 164 164 162 159 158 156 154 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 84 81 78 73 72 68 68 64 66 58 60 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 11 30 41 23 41 17 35 11 24 -6 2 200 MB DIV 31 27 14 11 21 9 8 -10 0 11 -19 -11 -10 LAND (KM) 61 56 61 72 59 122 181 221 267 332 392 435 461 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.9 101.7 102.5 103.2 104.3 105.2 106.0 106.7 107.5 108.2 108.7 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 17. 15. 14. 13. 15. 16. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY