* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 78 68 58 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 72 73 52 41 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 74 86 63 47 33 28 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 28 39 50 61 68 83 74 65 57 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 219 217 215 226 232 231 222 215 218 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 30.2 31.2 30.6 29.5 23.0 19.4 17.8 17.3 16.2 15.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 170 174 174 163 95 64 64 61 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -53.7 -54.9 -55.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 44 42 41 41 42 48 44 47 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 57 83 92 43 21 -24 -35 -55 -28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 45 38 41 23 41 34 52 37 36 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 116 -15 40 -144 -300 -763 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 32.8 35.7 39.1 40.4 42.1 42.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 111.2 110.0 109.0 107.9 104.9 102.7 98.5 95.1 94.8 92.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 17 17 20 19 20 19 10 7 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 2. -11. -24. -36. -46. -53. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -11. -16. -28. -43. -61. -80.-101.-118.-128.-136. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -20. -29. -49. -80.-112.-141.-169.-193.-205.-214. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -12. -22. -32. -54. -85.-116.-145.-173.-196.-208.-217. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED