* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 68 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 68 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 65 68 73 75 76 76 76 76 78 79 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 16 19 20 23 20 19 15 10 6 3 7 SHEAR DIR 85 90 94 85 90 89 85 74 64 57 54 157 256 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 164 164 160 158 155 154 152 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 11 10 13 10 12 9 11 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 80 76 71 70 66 62 64 60 58 56 55 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 32 40 27 27 25 38 22 22 0 -4 -17 200 MB DIV 26 11 3 17 -3 5 -5 0 -6 0 -35 -17 -18 LAND (KM) 45 67 39 68 107 157 214 268 316 372 428 484 547 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.5 106.3 106.9 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 335 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 16. 16. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED