* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 38 39 40 39 37 32 25 21 18 18 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 39 40 39 37 32 25 21 18 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 34 34 34 32 30 27 24 20 17 15 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 22 29 26 24 28 36 32 43 31 26 23 SHEAR DIR 298 296 287 290 298 273 254 262 262 311 309 314 319 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 136 131 128 125 123 122 121 122 123 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 134 129 124 119 115 113 111 109 109 109 108 107 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 62 66 64 64 66 59 58 54 52 47 48 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 16 13 6 2 22 31 23 22 -11 -24 -29 -28 200 MB DIV 32 33 23 8 22 22 28 38 17 1 -26 -35 15 LAND (KM) 1821 1880 1937 1935 1937 1933 1955 2023 2092 2138 2167 2177 2178 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.4 19.6 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.5 36.9 37.4 37.8 38.6 39.4 39.9 40.4 41.0 41.7 42.5 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 10 9 10 9 10 11 13 15 16 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -26. -29. -30. -29. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. -2. -6. -9. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. -5. -9. -12. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY