* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 38 46 52 56 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 38 46 52 56 60 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 23 26 28 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 25 23 15 17 15 14 13 15 16 29 31 SHEAR DIR 269 253 267 287 287 282 312 311 287 268 259 257 243 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 155 156 156 154 153 152 152 152 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 152 153 152 149 143 139 137 137 137 141 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 75 76 73 71 72 68 69 62 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 55 57 54 58 49 55 68 81 63 78 69 200 MB DIV 63 56 46 40 44 23 28 35 55 18 4 5 48 LAND (KM) 222 254 290 305 327 333 207 179 179 223 235 220 189 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.7 66.4 67.3 68.1 69.5 70.6 71.2 71.6 71.6 71.7 72.0 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 71 77 79 96 104 98 93 84 83 88 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 30. 35. 38. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 26. 32. 36. 40. 40. 39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY