* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 74 62 50 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 67 50 40 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 70 51 40 31 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 28 37 52 55 64 79 69 77 67 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 213 211 221 221 237 226 224 224 223 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.9 30.9 29.3 26.2 20.3 18.1 17.7 16.6 16.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 174 175 163 129 68 65 61 60 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 40 41 42 41 45 40 48 60 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 8 5 5 5 4 4 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 63 95 100 67 38 -24 -78 -65 -32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 41 34 15 25 36 30 59 83 61 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 73 -78 -314 -575 -887 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 26.2 27.6 29.6 31.5 34.5 38.3 39.7 41.4 42.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.3 110.5 109.6 107.9 106.2 104.4 99.8 96.1 96.0 94.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 21 24 20 21 21 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. -5. -19. -33. -44. -53. -55. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -8. -15. -21. -34. -50. -68. -88.-110.-126.-137.-145. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 16. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -26. -37. -65. -98.-130.-159.-191.-211.-224.-233. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -16. -28. -40. -69.-102.-134.-163.-194.-213.-226.-236. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY