* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 45 47 49 51 53 54 57 60 62 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 45 47 49 51 53 54 57 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 43 44 46 49 51 54 57 61 66 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 19 22 26 22 20 20 15 11 6 4 8 SHEAR DIR 83 82 82 86 92 94 71 57 47 30 326 279 301 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 164 163 161 158 157 155 153 151 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 70 71 68 63 59 59 63 57 56 55 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 39 27 20 23 15 32 11 17 -6 8 -17 200 MB DIV 11 -12 -5 -24 -7 -9 -9 -10 26 -15 2 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 44 24 32 61 93 152 192 231 280 342 405 467 526 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.9 103.4 104.0 104.6 106.0 106.4 106.7 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 5 6 6 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 379 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 15. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED