* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 35 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 35 33 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 32 31 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 28 35 30 34 33 41 38 38 40 39 33 28 SHEAR DIR 293 291 292 302 290 274 252 266 274 311 318 337 332 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 127 124 123 121 120 120 121 122 122 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 123 118 114 113 111 108 107 107 108 108 109 109 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.3 -55.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 66 64 63 62 62 57 54 49 47 43 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 15 11 13 25 15 17 -16 -22 -22 -26 -22 200 MB DIV 24 11 10 15 15 22 14 23 -7 -25 -28 -41 9 LAND (KM) 1983 2029 2048 2056 2065 2074 2128 2194 2235 2223 2185 2119 2059 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.6 19.6 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.6 38.9 39.3 40.1 41.1 42.2 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 7 8 7 8 11 12 13 15 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -29. -36. -39. -40. -40. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -15. -21. -23. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -18. -23. -26. -26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY