* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 42 49 56 62 65 63 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 42 49 56 62 65 62 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 26 24 21 17 18 16 16 17 13 15 27 29 34 SHEAR DIR 246 254 269 254 246 281 261 295 233 248 211 210 209 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 156 156 155 153 150 154 155 154 150 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 150 150 149 145 140 134 143 148 149 139 133 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 75 74 71 71 73 72 69 63 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 46 57 63 56 56 68 100 111 120 90 57 200 MB DIV 57 38 49 61 52 47 48 37 48 56 49 0 -26 LAND (KM) 308 351 383 365 333 274 216 192 225 200 26 130 305 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.3 17.7 19.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 65.8 66.6 67.3 68.0 69.3 70.1 70.5 70.1 68.7 66.6 65.2 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 5 3 0 4 9 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 66 68 70 70 80 97 107 108 107 94 87 72 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 26. 34. 39. 42. 41. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 22. 29. 36. 42. 45. 43. 39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY