* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NORBERT EP152008 10/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 71 64 55 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 65 49 39 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 68 50 40 34 29 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 35 47 47 53 61 72 72 80 64 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 212 225 228 227 228 219 224 223 231 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.1 30.1 28.3 24.4 19.8 17.9 17.2 15.9 15.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 170 152 110 65 65 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -54.3 -55.1 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 43 44 43 43 42 38 44 51 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 82 89 71 41 27 -35 -77 -91 -76 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 18 7 12 38 50 57 35 55 9 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 -52 -212 -451 -705 -965 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.2 28.5 30.4 32.2 35.2 38.9 40.6 42.6 43.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 109.4 108.5 106.8 105.1 102.8 98.0 94.3 93.1 90.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 20 24 20 22 21 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 5. -5. -17. -29. -39. -47. -48. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -9. -14. -19. -30. -44. -62. -83.-106.-122.-133.-142. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -27. -52. -82.-114.-145.-173.-192.-206.-217. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -9. -16. -25. -50. -79.-112.-144.-173.-192.-205.-217. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP152008 NORBERT 10/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152008 NORBERT 10/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY