* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 31 32 35 39 41 43 45 49 53 58 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 31 32 35 39 41 43 45 49 53 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 26 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 34 37 42 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 17 20 21 15 19 13 10 5 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 84 98 106 107 120 89 101 80 68 54 116 322 40 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 166 165 163 160 156 151 149 152 147 145 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 10 12 9 10 6 9 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 70 67 60 59 53 55 54 55 53 55 55 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 20 14 23 10 31 22 26 2 9 -13 -11 200 MB DIV -2 8 -14 -19 -23 -18 24 -11 -13 -19 -11 -24 -7 LAND (KM) 32 61 77 124 172 242 342 395 385 404 389 401 389 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.5 105.5 106.2 106.9 107.7 108.8 109.3 109.2 109.4 110.1 110.3 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 7 5 5 4 1 0 2 2 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -10. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY