* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 32 27 30 32 33 38 37 42 41 41 44 45 SHEAR DIR 277 285 290 282 270 255 252 256 292 304 311 306 301 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 121 121 120 120 121 122 122 119 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 114 110 111 109 108 107 108 107 103 103 105 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -55.7 -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 66 63 58 58 57 53 50 50 44 49 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 3 2 2 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 15 16 18 27 29 3 -15 -44 -36 -18 -1 200 MB DIV -1 2 11 10 13 24 41 20 -20 -21 -2 24 10 LAND (KM) 1985 2029 2074 2107 2111 2140 2203 2248 2274 2304 2354 2374 2293 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.6 22.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.2 37.5 38.2 38.5 39.0 39.6 40.2 40.4 40.0 39.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 12 12 13 13 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -39. -41. -44. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -23. -29. -31. -31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -30. -32. -33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY