* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 41 48 55 59 55 52 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 36 41 48 53 58 54 51 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 27 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 29 28 21 17 17 12 21 21 28 26 46 44 53 SHEAR DIR 259 263 262 258 274 261 275 272 252 223 219 204 214 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 156 156 154 151 150 150 150 149 145 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 151 149 146 139 136 134 138 137 132 126 125 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 73 73 70 68 69 66 64 60 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 9 9 8 7 9 11 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 53 64 64 64 66 88 110 134 109 105 66 200 MB DIV 42 45 66 40 42 33 35 50 55 49 19 20 0 LAND (KM) 366 393 304 244 178 109 56 7 43 88 244 433 596 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.4 19.3 20.7 22.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.7 65.4 66.1 66.7 67.8 68.6 68.8 67.9 66.5 65.9 66.1 66.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 8 5 3 2 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 80 82 90 93 86 89 84 83 76 73 62 43 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 381 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -24. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 26. 32. 36. 33. 30. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 21. 28. 35. 39. 35. 32. 24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY