* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 37 40 43 44 45 46 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 36 37 40 43 44 45 46 48 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 31 31 31 31 32 33 35 37 40 43 47 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 22 26 23 27 19 14 14 8 7 5 8 SHEAR DIR 98 103 105 119 109 109 124 94 109 123 193 249 207 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 161 157 154 151 148 147 146 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 51 50 52 53 49 52 54 59 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 26 20 30 32 14 44 24 30 10 8 -24 -19 200 MB DIV 9 0 -14 -11 -7 9 15 15 0 8 -11 -2 9 LAND (KM) 88 90 120 166 213 293 360 409 411 411 411 414 421 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.2 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.2 110.5 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 16. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 17. 20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY