* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 31 28 28 32 36 36 35 37 36 38 30 43 39 SHEAR DIR 278 288 280 267 264 247 249 258 293 295 307 305 303 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 121 121 120 121 123 122 122 121 120 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 112 111 111 109 109 110 108 108 106 103 102 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 56 57 56 54 51 46 48 43 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 12 14 29 26 25 -4 -29 -25 -29 -9 -35 200 MB DIV -5 1 -1 1 22 25 21 1 0 20 -13 20 -7 LAND (KM) 2052 2050 2049 2043 2039 2085 2137 2199 2245 2295 2374 2491 2537 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.0 25.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.5 37.9 38.4 38.8 39.5 40.0 40.6 41.3 41.9 42.4 42.2 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 8 8 10 13 14 14 14 12 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -35. -36. -38. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -22. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -22. -23. -26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY