* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 32 38 47 52 58 63 64 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 32 38 47 52 58 63 64 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 32 35 34 SHEAR (KTS) 24 21 21 18 16 19 15 13 19 15 18 28 29 SHEAR DIR 257 246 236 262 279 268 311 285 287 249 228 213 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 155 155 154 153 152 154 155 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 150 148 145 142 139 138 143 145 142 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 8 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 75 73 70 74 69 69 67 66 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 8 9 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 47 54 60 56 59 63 70 84 105 98 96 62 200 MB DIV 43 49 41 46 44 23 35 27 45 24 46 25 29 LAND (KM) 339 334 326 326 310 252 255 268 270 280 213 94 -33 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.3 15.2 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.8 68.6 69.3 69.9 70.8 71.5 71.7 71.3 70.1 69.4 69.2 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 4 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 75 80 94 95 93 82 67 68 64 94 94 91 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 26. 31. 37. 41. 42. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 18. 27. 32. 39. 43. 44. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY