* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 39 42 45 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 39 42 45 48 51 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 20 19 19 20 21 22 25 28 31 34 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 25 22 25 26 16 12 5 2 10 9 13 SHEAR DIR 94 97 96 91 78 90 71 57 39 19 260 234 205 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 163 162 162 160 156 155 153 152 152 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 9 9 11 7 9 8 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 61 66 63 64 61 63 60 63 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 22 33 35 23 43 20 17 2 6 -12 -25 -40 200 MB DIV 4 -12 -4 -10 -13 -1 18 6 -23 -14 -44 -13 -22 LAND (KM) 34 53 77 110 143 210 281 322 363 384 426 378 279 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.3 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.9 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.7 109.4 110.2 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 3. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 30. 32. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED