* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL972008 10/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 25 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 29 31 32 28 37 30 33 28 27 26 21 17 SHEAR DIR 290 279 269 269 259 256 265 295 304 313 324 300 276 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 123 123 123 124 125 127 127 128 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 113 112 112 113 113 114 114 114 115 116 114 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 59 61 60 55 51 48 47 47 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 13 26 31 28 12 -2 -33 -58 -23 -8 -18 200 MB DIV 9 9 3 23 17 15 -5 15 -15 -12 27 3 14 LAND (KM) 2019 1999 1982 1971 1963 1982 1995 2021 2070 2133 2089 2111 1985 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.4 26.8 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.3 38.8 39.4 39.9 40.9 42.0 43.1 44.2 45.4 46.6 47.3 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 9 11 12 15 21 23 18 19 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -23. -27. -28. -27. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -16. -14. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -16. -14. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972008 INVEST 10/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY