* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 52 56 58 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 52 56 58 57 55 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 41 42 35 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 20 19 14 23 19 19 17 23 18 27 27 SHEAR DIR 258 254 261 278 287 298 317 291 284 266 248 241 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 155 154 154 152 154 154 152 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 146 145 143 141 137 141 144 140 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 71 70 68 67 68 63 62 53 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 42 42 48 63 70 95 73 66 38 27 9 200 MB DIV 52 38 45 48 47 15 29 31 32 15 20 0 13 LAND (KM) 325 295 263 242 188 155 172 211 251 248 158 71 -56 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.5 69.3 69.9 70.4 71.3 71.8 71.4 70.3 69.5 69.5 69.7 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 4 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 79 93 95 100 105 96 92 79 95 96 94 93 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 28. 29. 28. 26. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 27. 31. 33. 32. 30. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY