* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ODILE EP162008 10/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 34 39 45 48 50 52 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 34 39 45 48 50 52 55 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 22 22 23 26 29 32 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 24 21 21 19 16 8 3 3 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 90 92 94 97 95 88 166 220 215 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 164 163 160 155 150 142 135 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 10 9 10 8 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 56 59 60 57 63 57 56 55 54 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 39 21 26 41 28 31 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -17 -24 3 10 5 5 11 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 34 44 72 125 178 260 365 302 294 333 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.3 106.9 108.0 109.2 110.4 111.6 112.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 25. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 22. 24. 26. 29. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 14. 20. 23. 25. 27. 30. 34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162008 ODILE 10/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED