* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 30 27 26 25 24 25 29 32 32 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 30 27 26 25 24 25 29 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 29 27 26 24 23 23 25 28 SHEAR (KTS) 29 29 32 26 27 25 27 25 18 13 5 8 19 SHEAR DIR 283 275 276 270 262 259 290 323 336 344 332 324 243 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 125 126 126 128 130 132 133 133 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 115 116 117 116 118 120 122 122 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 67 63 59 54 52 52 50 55 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 18 21 23 14 2 -10 -57 -55 -73 -47 -22 200 MB DIV 13 -5 14 0 -12 3 -20 -6 -2 15 16 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 1964 1924 1885 1853 1824 1770 1739 1702 1686 1678 1602 1505 1402 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.2 39.8 40.5 41.2 42.5 43.8 45.3 46.9 48.5 50.1 51.7 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 16 20 21 24 26 25 30 32 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -6. -3. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -6. -3. -3. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY