* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 29 27 25 24 22 21 23 23 21 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 29 27 25 24 22 21 23 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 32 31 29 27 24 22 20 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 30 27 30 31 26 27 28 23 25 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 269 266 265 265 268 311 323 337 349 358 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 125 125 125 128 129 131 129 129 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 115 116 116 115 118 118 119 116 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.4 -54.2 -53.4 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 61 58 55 52 50 54 52 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 14 21 20 13 9 -3 -42 -70 -67 -51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 13 -7 -16 -2 -12 -7 -21 -10 33 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1935 1899 1865 1847 1830 1811 1799 1811 1846 1823 1766 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 23.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.6 40.2 40.9 41.5 42.8 44.2 45.7 47.1 48.4 49.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 15 18 18 20 25 27 29 20 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -12. -12. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY