* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL982008 10/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 51 58 60 62 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 42 51 58 60 62 60 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 47 48 48 46 44 SHEAR (KTS) 19 15 14 19 21 11 14 14 18 16 24 21 25 SHEAR DIR 274 284 273 269 295 332 292 254 248 231 229 230 237 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 154 152 152 150 153 154 157 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 144 142 141 138 138 135 139 142 146 149 151 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 70 71 66 64 58 56 50 53 49 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 9 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 49 54 54 67 101 71 57 22 15 1 0 200 MB DIV 17 36 50 28 6 32 40 47 26 16 22 3 32 LAND (KM) 309 267 217 204 200 217 255 276 266 228 182 111 43 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.0 70.6 71.0 71.4 71.9 72.1 72.1 72.1 72.6 73.4 74.5 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 2 4 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 94 98 96 90 83 82 76 73 74 86 84 109 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 21. 28. 28. 29. 28. 27. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 21. 28. 30. 32. 30. 30. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982008 INVEST 10/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982008 INVEST 10/13/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY