* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 19 20 24 26 25 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 19 20 24 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 16 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 29 28 30 32 27 33 27 24 18 16 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 265 262 263 272 285 314 325 330 4 319 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 127 127 127 127 129 129 129 129 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 117 117 117 117 118 117 115 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.5 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 60 58 58 50 51 48 50 41 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 15 7 5 2 -23 -55 -69 -53 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -6 -15 0 -4 -17 -8 8 16 41 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1905 1887 1871 1862 1852 1830 1830 1858 1866 1823 1758 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 23.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.0 40.5 41.2 41.8 43.2 44.7 46.2 47.6 48.8 49.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 15 15 16 21 24 29 22 21 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -19. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -6. -4. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -6. -4. -5. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY