* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152008 10/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 48 54 56 57 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 48 54 56 57 57 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 44 44 43 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 14 19 21 8 7 22 18 25 22 24 19 SHEAR DIR 283 286 274 295 319 281 257 216 243 225 246 227 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 155 154 154 154 154 155 155 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 144 142 139 139 140 143 145 146 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 73 73 68 65 61 54 52 54 51 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 51 55 51 56 67 84 63 48 34 21 7 7 200 MB DIV 37 53 36 19 20 40 42 31 24 9 10 -3 9 LAND (KM) 314 317 283 267 256 255 268 281 272 252 192 94 22 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.1 70.5 70.9 71.2 71.5 71.7 71.8 72.3 73.2 74.5 75.9 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 4 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 95 94 88 80 74 68 68 66 72 81 101 107 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 18. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. 27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY