* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 10/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 54 60 66 69 71 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 54 60 48 34 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 42 49 43 32 28 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 17 11 10 9 2 5 3 7 7 12 17 SHEAR DIR 271 258 255 266 280 257 254 230 168 213 172 177 170 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 161 160 160 159 159 156 145 142 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 155 153 151 149 148 150 148 137 135 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 8 10 8 9 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 82 78 77 77 75 70 73 68 66 68 69 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 75 77 75 66 62 51 59 63 50 39 33 200 MB DIV 36 42 35 25 28 21 -10 8 11 41 22 39 39 LAND (KM) 148 76 32 25 41 81 120 96 -67 -213 -131 -28 9 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.6 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.5 82.9 83.4 83.8 84.7 85.9 87.3 89.0 90.9 92.7 94.6 96.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 5 1 2 6 105 97 86 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 35. 43. 47. 49. 49. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 29. 35. 41. 44. 46. 46. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 10/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 10/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY