* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 18 20 19 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 32 34 38 29 26 29 29 23 17 16 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 258 264 273 271 306 319 357 357 358 348 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 126 127 127 128 128 128 128 128 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 115 116 116 117 117 116 115 114 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -52.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 58 58 59 55 48 50 47 44 42 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 10 6 0 -9 -37 -67 -82 -55 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -15 0 0 -14 -4 -40 -22 12 -1 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1901 1885 1870 1858 1848 1854 1869 1919 1906 1833 1789 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.7 24.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.3 40.8 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.9 45.3 46.6 47.9 49.0 49.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 17 18 19 24 25 24 19 21 19 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -18. -19. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -16. -12. -10. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -12. -10. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY