* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152008 10/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 39 45 55 58 59 57 55 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 39 45 55 56 57 55 53 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 38 38 38 37 36 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 18 19 13 19 14 23 18 28 27 29 27 SHEAR DIR 277 270 295 319 335 268 228 225 211 222 219 240 245 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 155 156 156 154 151 147 141 138 132 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 141 144 146 149 148 145 139 132 129 124 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 75 73 71 56 51 41 34 31 26 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 12 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 60 64 71 80 80 43 30 -5 16 -18 -45 200 MB DIV 53 57 31 37 63 70 53 34 12 -7 -21 -10 19 LAND (KM) 289 311 301 295 295 213 44 130 421 722 1037 1436 1653 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.2 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.6 25.0 28.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.1 70.3 70.0 69.7 68.4 66.8 64.7 62.5 60.5 58.7 56.4 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 4 5 9 11 13 13 14 16 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 90 91 90 97 97 97 86 68 47 42 28 18 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 26. 28. 27. 25. 24. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 9. 15. 25. 28. 29. 27. 25. 23. 20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY