* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 10/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 41 43 46 51 53 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 37 41 43 46 51 53 54 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 31 33 35 37 31 SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 15 14 16 17 15 14 9 9 16 14 11 SHEAR DIR 199 232 254 260 254 275 317 13 57 65 93 119 126 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 139 138 141 144 149 155 163 167 165 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 130 130 128 133 139 148 159 173 175 175 170 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 14 700-500 MB RH 60 58 61 61 61 58 53 59 51 58 54 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 16 0 -12 -18 -48 -65 -80 -59 -33 -18 -13 200 MB DIV 11 7 12 22 8 17 -7 -3 26 32 14 20 5 LAND (KM) 1501 1519 1539 1543 1550 1495 1382 1199 997 735 477 131 -165 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.0 13.3 12.1 10.8 9.5 8.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.5 41.7 42.6 44.3 46.5 49.0 52.3 55.7 59.4 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 6 9 12 15 17 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 30 31 31 33 27 38 54 71 70 21 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 28. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 18. 23. 28. 30. 32. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 26. 28. 29. 33. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 10/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 10/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY