* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 10/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 34 38 42 49 57 65 70 75 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 30 34 38 42 49 57 65 45 33 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 32 35 40 47 55 43 32 28 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 11 12 9 7 4 4 8 2 4 12 7 SHEAR DIR 262 259 262 269 262 276 302 292 20 322 117 180 215 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 161 160 160 159 156 150 144 142 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 155 155 152 151 150 150 149 143 137 134 134 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 9 11 9 9 8 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 75 74 73 70 71 66 65 64 66 65 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 72 79 84 87 74 64 75 74 67 51 34 9 200 MB DIV 35 29 27 31 36 -13 0 18 41 33 24 18 2 LAND (KM) 133 86 48 56 54 56 70 47 -86 -173 -56 -11 10 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.1 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.4 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.9 86.3 87.9 89.8 91.7 93.6 95.4 97.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 3 2 4 27 80 70 21 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 39. 47. 53. 56. 54. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 32. 40. 45. 50. 52. 51. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 10/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 10/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY