* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 17 16 DIS 16 17 15 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 37 30 28 34 31 34 27 22 22 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 265 271 271 291 308 317 326 336 326 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 127 127 128 130 128 129 128 126 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 116 117 117 118 115 115 112 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 54 52 53 51 50 43 41 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 3 0 -7 -16 -37 -62 -66 -65 -17 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 -2 -26 0 8 -3 19 35 20 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1852 1841 1830 1832 1837 1864 1898 1892 1827 1781 1778 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.1 43.7 45.2 46.6 47.9 49.0 49.9 50.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 21 23 25 25 19 21 19 18 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -21. -24. -24. -25. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY