* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152008 10/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 54 58 57 55 52 49 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 54 58 57 55 52 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 39 40 41 40 38 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 17 11 13 23 19 11 17 17 26 25 28 SHEAR DIR 276 302 318 329 259 250 210 219 200 227 239 260 265 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 156 156 155 152 150 146 141 137 132 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 145 146 148 149 144 140 136 133 127 118 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 73 68 56 49 43 37 31 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 11 15 14 10 8 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 62 68 71 82 74 37 19 9 25 -3 -16 200 MB DIV 46 31 48 84 58 58 55 44 15 11 -15 5 41 LAND (KM) 272 297 322 311 266 124 62 228 434 703 1063 1335 1542 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.1 20.4 22.1 24.3 26.3 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.4 69.2 68.9 68.6 67.0 65.2 63.7 62.2 60.3 57.7 56.0 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 4 5 7 10 10 9 11 14 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 89 94 98 100 97 88 87 68 50 43 33 24 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 26. 26. 25. 23. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 24. 28. 27. 25. 22. 19. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY