* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 10/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 32 34 35 36 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 32 34 35 36 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 24 23 22 23 23 24 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 17 15 20 22 24 20 14 18 14 12 10 SHEAR DIR 244 249 262 254 265 307 326 360 358 21 54 42 65 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 136 134 134 135 138 141 146 148 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 127 126 124 125 127 132 136 142 143 144 144 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 61 61 57 52 52 45 44 50 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 0 -5 -7 -23 -55 -72 -85 -53 2 6 1 200 MB DIV 8 8 19 0 -7 4 -18 -14 4 30 16 4 -20 LAND (KM) 1562 1586 1612 1627 1644 1606 1515 1407 1292 1166 1010 845 739 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.1 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.6 41.8 42.9 44.5 46.5 48.7 51.1 53.2 55.2 57.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 6 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 31 34 34 37 29 28 46 67 71 78 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 12. 13. 16. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 15. 16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 10/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 10/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY