* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 10/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 54 62 66 69 72 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 54 62 49 34 29 28 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 47 33 29 27 31 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 3 2 5 5 5 4 7 1 7 8 4 SHEAR DIR 269 269 294 228 237 345 7 15 8 183 171 215 228 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 160 160 160 159 156 150 143 142 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 152 149 149 150 151 150 144 136 134 133 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 8 10 7 9 7 9 5 8 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 72 70 69 67 65 64 64 65 64 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 70 73 76 81 76 65 81 65 54 39 15 0 200 MB DIV 40 21 28 21 1 -10 1 15 40 20 32 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 131 91 54 46 56 6 9 4 -65 -196 -79 -1 21 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.4 82.7 83.1 83.4 84.5 85.8 87.6 89.6 91.5 93.3 95.0 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 2 3 6 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 36. 42. 48. 51. 50. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 29. 37. 41. 44. 47. 47. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 10/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 10/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY