* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NANA AL142008 10/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 22 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 22 22 24 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 19 19 20 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 34 31 30 30 30 30 23 16 14 14 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 266 284 298 301 296 313 327 311 334 318 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 128 128 130 130 129 129 128 125 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 117 118 118 118 117 116 114 111 108 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 52 54 52 53 51 46 45 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 -5 -14 -25 -53 -35 -89 -42 -19 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -12 -21 7 6 15 12 -12 0 -7 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1802 1797 1795 1803 1816 1866 1838 1745 1683 1674 1702 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.8 27.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.8 43.5 44.1 44.9 45.6 47.1 48.5 49.8 50.9 51.6 52.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 23 25 26 20 21 20 17 14 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 872 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142008 NANA 10/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142008 NANA 10/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY