* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIFTEEN AL152008 10/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 55 59 55 54 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 55 59 55 54 49 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 38 39 38 36 33 SHEAR (KTS) 17 19 12 10 17 18 21 13 20 24 32 30 34 SHEAR DIR 301 314 324 261 266 227 220 189 208 213 239 243 258 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 156 153 150 147 142 138 136 133 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 145 146 149 146 142 137 131 126 124 120 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 73 73 72 60 52 45 38 40 30 28 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 17 18 18 13 14 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 58 62 63 78 63 48 9 33 14 -8 -48 200 MB DIV 20 41 68 38 41 74 59 48 13 10 -1 -15 2 LAND (KM) 266 299 333 312 269 102 62 297 510 736 979 1254 1568 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.7 17.0 18.6 20.2 21.4 22.9 24.8 27.3 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.1 68.9 68.5 68.0 66.6 65.2 63.7 62.1 60.6 59.3 58.3 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 8 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 92 97 100 96 92 89 33 63 45 41 30 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 16. 23. 27. 25. 25. 21. 17. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 25. 29. 25. 24. 19. 14. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152008 FIFTEEN 10/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY