* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 10/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 29 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 19 18 23 19 21 15 10 14 5 7 5 SHEAR DIR 248 252 261 273 296 317 340 11 20 61 47 39 330 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 132 130 129 130 132 136 141 146 149 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 122 119 118 120 124 129 136 141 146 146 144 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 59 50 48 42 43 44 48 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -3 -1 -1 -29 -43 -59 -57 -15 -8 -19 -13 200 MB DIV 8 12 -2 -2 7 -23 -26 -23 -20 -14 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1641 1672 1704 1715 1725 1678 1593 1480 1349 1222 992 830 693 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.7 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.6 41.9 43.1 44.7 46.8 49.2 51.5 54.1 56.7 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 7 9 11 11 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 31 30 30 29 32 51 72 72 74 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 13. 16. 19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 10/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902008 INVEST 10/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY