* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL992008 10/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 61 64 66 68 68 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 35 29 34 35 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 32 28 34 39 43 46 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 4 5 4 7 7 9 8 7 11 9 9 SHEAR DIR 264 292 233 235 286 52 86 97 118 130 154 173 171 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 161 161 158 155 145 144 140 140 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 151 152 152 151 148 140 138 134 134 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 10 10 8 9 8 9 8 9 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 74 73 70 68 66 65 67 71 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 5 5 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 77 83 76 57 61 59 51 41 25 13 2 200 MB DIV 15 25 31 15 0 -1 15 22 43 49 39 4 3 LAND (KM) 77 78 61 50 57 65 11 -181 -52 61 69 156 293 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.6 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.3 83.8 84.5 85.2 86.8 88.7 90.7 92.8 94.7 96.4 98.2 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 46 63 78 51 2 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 35. 41. 45. 46. 47. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 36. 39. 41. 43. 43. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992008 INVEST 10/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992008 INVEST 10/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY